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Second Quarter Investment Outlook
The road ahead for risk assets looks pretty smooth right now. But valuations already baked in a fairly rosy macroeconomic[…]
Second Quarter Investment Outlook
While the markets in the first quarter may have been roiled by a former antagonist—volatility—the outlook for the rest of[…]
Third Quarter Investment Outlook
Global growth has been less synchronized lately, but I’m not sounding the alarm. The US economy is approaching its fastest[…]
Q3 Investment Outlook
With limited evidence of excess in the global financial system and mostly low interest rates around the world, I am[…]
Fourth Quarter Investment Outlook
We think an outright recession in the next 12 months is unlikely, but we need to see a cyclical pickup[…]
The Brexit Beat – Some Certainty Amid Uncertainty
Never a dull moment in UK politics. The EU finally granted the UK a Brexit extension to January 31, with[…]
The Brexit Beat – Boris vs. Parliament: From Optimism to More Uncertainty
UK Parliament held two key Brexit votes today. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson won the first vote, support for the Withdrawal[…]
Friday Fact: Federal Deficit on Track to Pass $1 Trillion in FY 2019
The federal deficit hit $779 billion in fiscal year 2018. This was the highest level since the $1.09 trillion deficit[…]
Political Games in the EU: Playing Chicken
Fans of the “Fast & Furious” movies know the game of chicken. Two cars race toward each other, each driver[…]
Friday Fact: Indicators of a Hot Economy
It may be chilly outside this spring, but two data releases this week indicate that the US economy is running[…]
Friday Fact: Consumers Are Divided on Business Conditions
I noticed an interesting result in the Conference Board’s most recent Index of Consumer Confidence in March. The percentage of[…]
Volatility Returns in a Big Way: Our Reaction
Volatility returned in a big way earlier this week. Over the past few trading sessions, equity market volatility as measured[…]
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